Post by account_disabled on Dec 12, 2023 9:35:03 GMT
The next period is likely to continue expanding. from foreign tourists who are likely to recover following the return of Chinese and ASEAN tourists, as well as domestic tourism growing as demand for tourism remains at a high level. As a result, the service sector as a whole, especially tourism-related services such as hotels, restaurants, and transportation, has improved. In addition, private consumption is likely to expand well. Especially in the second quarter, there was campaign money during the election period to help stimulate the economy. Overall, the Thai economy is close to the level before the COVID crisis and is expected to return to the pre-pandemic level by the middle of this year.
However, even though exports are still worrisome and are likely to contract in the first half of the year according Phone Number List to the economic direction and World trade is still not bright and the base factors are high. It may put pressure on investment and production for export. But exports are likely to gradually improve in the second half of the year due to the recovery of demand in China after the country opens. Including the world economy which has passed its lowest point. It is still necessary to keep an eye on the effects of the election and the formation of a new government on the economy. The results of the general election on May 14 that led to the transition of government are a factor to watch. This will affect the direction of the Thai economy going forward.
In the base case, SCB EIC views that the election and government transition will have little impact on the Thai economy in the first 3 quarters of the year due to the Budget Act. Fiscal year 2023 already covers the disbursement of the government budget until the end of the third quarter of 2023. Government agencies can proceed with the policies and projects that have already been determined as usual, and disbursement has also been accelerated. budget and bring the matter into the consideration process before the parliament is dissolved. However, SCB EIC expects that the negative impacts will begin to be seen more clearly in the 4th quarter of 2023 due to the uncertainty of the time period for consideration and approval of the Budget Act. Fiscal year 2024 results in not much additional money to support the economy from the government. It is also expected that the urgent policies of the new government will have an impact on the economy starting in 2024.
However, even though exports are still worrisome and are likely to contract in the first half of the year according Phone Number List to the economic direction and World trade is still not bright and the base factors are high. It may put pressure on investment and production for export. But exports are likely to gradually improve in the second half of the year due to the recovery of demand in China after the country opens. Including the world economy which has passed its lowest point. It is still necessary to keep an eye on the effects of the election and the formation of a new government on the economy. The results of the general election on May 14 that led to the transition of government are a factor to watch. This will affect the direction of the Thai economy going forward.
In the base case, SCB EIC views that the election and government transition will have little impact on the Thai economy in the first 3 quarters of the year due to the Budget Act. Fiscal year 2023 already covers the disbursement of the government budget until the end of the third quarter of 2023. Government agencies can proceed with the policies and projects that have already been determined as usual, and disbursement has also been accelerated. budget and bring the matter into the consideration process before the parliament is dissolved. However, SCB EIC expects that the negative impacts will begin to be seen more clearly in the 4th quarter of 2023 due to the uncertainty of the time period for consideration and approval of the Budget Act. Fiscal year 2024 results in not much additional money to support the economy from the government. It is also expected that the urgent policies of the new government will have an impact on the economy starting in 2024.